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␈↓ ↓H␈↓␈↓βS␈↓∧ Artificial Intelligence Laboratory, STANFORD UNIVERSITY, Stanford, California 94305

␈↓ ↓H␈↓∧Telephone 415 497-4430␈↓ 	zAugust 11, 1977 




␈↓ ↓H␈↓Dr. Etienne van de Walle
␈↓ ↓H␈↓Population Studies Center
␈↓ ↓H␈↓University of Pennsylvania
␈↓ ↓H␈↓Philadelphia, PA 19104

␈↓ ↓H␈↓Dear Dr. Walle:

␈↓ ↓H␈↓        I␈α∞just␈α∞read␈α∞your␈α∞review␈α
in␈α∞␈↓↓Science␈↓␈α∞of␈α∞McKeown's␈α∞␈↓↓The␈α
Modern␈α∞Rise␈α∞in␈α∞Population␈↓,␈α∞and␈α
it
␈↓ ↓H␈↓inspired me to ask your opinion of an idea that occurred to me some years ago.

␈↓ ↓H␈↓        The␈α
idea␈α
is␈α
that␈α∞the␈α
modern␈α
rise␈α
in␈α∞population␈α
has␈α
nothing␈α
to␈α∞do␈α
with␈α
a␈α
lowering␈α∞of␈α
the
␈↓ ↓H␈↓death␈α
rates,␈α
but␈α
is␈α
a␈α
consequence␈α
of␈α
a␈α∞rise␈α
in␈α
birth␈α
rates␈α
associated␈α
with␈α
the␈α
creation␈α
of␈α∞a␈α
labor
␈↓ ↓H␈↓market.␈α
 In␈α
traditional␈α
societies,␈α
the␈α
possibility␈α
of␈α
marriage␈α
seems␈α
to␈α
have␈α
depended␈α
on␈αacquiring␈α
a
␈↓ ↓H␈↓niche␈αin␈αsociety␈αthat␈αpermitted␈αsupporting␈αa␈αfamily.␈α Such␈αniches␈αwere␈αusually␈αinherited␈αor,␈αin␈αthe
␈↓ ↓H␈↓case␈α∩of␈α∩women,␈α∩obtained␈α∩by␈α∩marriage.␈α∩ A␈α∩person␈α∩who␈α∩did␈α∩not␈α∩obtain␈α∩a␈α∪position␈α∩permitting
␈↓ ↓H␈↓marriage␈αhad␈α
to␈αaccept␈α
a␈αsocial␈α
role␈αnot␈αinvolving␈α
marriage.␈α These␈α
included␈αthe␈α
clergy,␈αsoldiers,
␈↓ ↓H␈↓many␈α∪domestic␈α∪servants␈α∀and␈α∪many␈α∪agricultural␈α∪laborers.␈α∀ The␈α∪inheritance␈α∪of␈α∀social␈α∪position
␈↓ ↓H␈↓permitting marriage applied to the upper classes as well.

␈↓ ↓H␈↓        There␈α
is␈α
substantial␈αevidence␈α
for␈α
this␈αin␈α
literature␈α
and␈α
history.␈α Jane␈α
Austen␈α
tells␈αabout␈α
men
␈↓ ↓H␈↓who␈α
married␈α
at␈α
the␈α
age␈α
of␈α
≡fty␈α
when␈αan␈α
unexpected␈α
inheritance␈α
permitted␈α
it.␈α
 Folk␈α
tales␈α
are␈αfull␈α
of
␈↓ ↓H␈↓stories␈α
about␈α
the␈α
youngest␈α
son␈α
seeking␈α
a␈α
fortune␈α
that␈α
would␈α
permit␈α
him␈α
to␈α
marry.␈α
 Relics␈α
of␈α
the
␈↓ ↓H␈↓point␈α
of␈α∞view␈α
that␈α∞social␈α
position␈α∞was␈α
required␈α
for␈α∞marriage␈α
survived␈α∞in␈α
England␈α∞and␈α
America
␈↓ ↓H␈↓well into the twentieth century.

␈↓ ↓H␈↓        The␈αtraditional␈αsociety␈αwas␈αdisrupted␈αby␈α
the␈αcreation␈αof␈αa␈αlabor␈αmarket␈αby␈α
industrialization.
␈↓ ↓H␈↓␈↓↓The␈αessence␈αof␈αa␈αlabor␈αmarket␈αis␈αthat␈αanyone␈αcan␈αapply␈αfor␈αa␈αjob␈↓.␈α If␈αhe␈αgets␈αit␈αand␈αkeeps␈αit,␈αhe␈αcan
␈↓ ↓H␈↓marry␈αand␈αhave␈αchildren.␈α It␈αseems␈αto␈αme␈αthat␈αI␈αhave␈αread␈αthat␈αthe␈αoriginal␈αfactories␈αin␈αEngland
␈↓ ↓H␈↓were␈α∂based␈α∂on␈α∂the␈α∂idea␈α∂that␈α∂their␈α∂workers␈α∂were␈α∂temporary␈α∂residents␈α∂of␈α∂the␈α∂city,␈α∂would␈α⊂live␈α∂in
␈↓ ↓H␈↓dormitories,␈α_and␈α_return␈α_to␈α_rural␈α_society.␈α_ I␈α_believe␈α_that␈α_this␈α_was␈α_also␈α_the␈α_case␈α_in␈α_the
␈↓ ↓H␈↓industrialization␈αof␈αJapan␈αin␈α
the␈αnineteenth␈αcentury.␈α However,␈αonce␈α
a␈αworker␈αstarted␈αa␈αfamily,␈α
he
␈↓ ↓H␈↓could␈α
not␈αreturn␈α
to␈αthe␈α
rural␈α
environment␈αexcept␈α
by␈αinheriting␈α
a␈α
position␈αeven␈α
if␈αliving␈α
conditions
␈↓ ↓H␈↓in the city were worse than those in the country.
␈↓ ↓H␈↓αDr. Etienne van de Walle␈↓ ¬dAugust 11, 1977␈↓ 
nPage 2␈↓ 


␈↓ ↓H␈↓        Can␈αyou␈αtell␈αme␈αif␈αthis␈αis␈αan␈αold␈αidea␈αthat␈αhas␈αsomehow␈αbeen␈αrefuted?␈α I␈αhaven't␈αseen␈αit␈αin
␈↓ ↓H␈↓print,␈α∞but␈α∞I␈α∞haven't␈α∞studied␈α∞the␈α∞scienti≡c␈α∞literature␈α∞on␈α
the␈α∞subject.␈α∞ If␈α∞it␈α∞is␈α∞new,␈α∞I␈α∞would␈α∞like␈α
to
␈↓ ↓H␈↓publish␈αit,␈αperhaps␈αas␈αa␈αbrief␈αnote␈αin␈αsome␈α
journal.␈α It␈αseems␈αto␈αme␈αthat␈αthe␈αidea␈αcould␈α
be␈αtested
␈↓ ↓H␈↓by␈α
seeing␈α
looking␈α
for␈α
a␈α∞change␈α
in␈α
the␈α
percentage␈α
of␈α∞second␈α
and␈α
third␈α
sons␈α
who␈α∞themselves␈α
had
␈↓ ↓H␈↓children.


␈↓ ↓H␈↓Sincerely,



␈↓ ↓H␈↓John McCarthy
␈↓ ↓H␈↓Director
␈↓ ↓H␈↓Professor of Computer Science